The Diploma Dilemma: Is a High-Stakes Final Exam the Best Gatekeeper for University?

Written by Antonello Barbaro, CEO of H-FARM Education

For students aged 16 to 18, the two-year journey often culminates in a single, monumental event: the final, comprehensive, high-stakes examination. For a student in Italy, this is the Esame di Maturità; in the UK, the culmination of A-Levels; and in many national systems, it is the decisive gatekeeper to university.

This practice is rooted in tradition and the perceived need for standardized accountability. The belief is simple: a single, comprehensive exam forces rigor, demands mastery, and offers a clear, objective metric for university selection.

But as a global educator, I must ask: Does a two-week period of performance truly measure a student’s capacity for success across four years of secondary school and a lifetime of learning? And are we trading authentic skill development for the ability to perform under extreme, artificial pressure?

The Flaw in the Finish Line

A growing body of academic literature challenges the merit of relying on single, high-stakes final exams as the ultimate measure of readiness:

• Rote vs. Deep Learning: Research, including meta-reviews on high-stakes assessment, consistently suggests that exams heavily weighted toward memorization and recall, rather than application or synthesis, encourage “surface learning.” Students learn to pass the test, often losing the content soon after.
• Stress and Gender Bias: Studies, including those conducted at the university level, have shown that test anxiety can significantly hinder performance, with some findings suggesting a disproportionately negative impact on female students in high-pressure exam environments. For a student anxious before the Maturità, the score may reflect their stress level more accurately than their intellectual capability.
• The Lack of Authenticity: Few challenges in modern professional life, from medicine to engineering, rely on a person recalling all knowledge from the past two years in a single, silent, time-constrained setting.

The Broader Vision: The IB Diploma amp; Continuous Development

Contrast the single-exam approach with the structure of qualifications like the International Baccalaureate (IB) Diploma Programme (DP):

The compelling evidence lies in the outcomes: Studies on IB graduates in UK higher education show that, when controlling for entry qualifications, IB students are more likely to enroll in a Top 20 university and have higher odds of earning a First-Class Honours degree than their A-Level counterparts. The theory is that the Core elements (EE, TOK, CAS) cultivate the soft-skills (self-management, critical inquiry) that make students thrive at university, not just enter it.

• To parents: When reviewing school results, do you prioritize a high score in a single, specialized subject, or a qualification that demonstrates your child can conduct independent research, think critically across disciplines, and manage a massive workload?
• To universities: Is the Maturità or A-Level result truly the best predictor of success in a four-year degree, or does the evidence suggest qualifications that emphasize continuous assessment and research better prepare students for the rigors of independent study?
• As a system leader: Are we serving the modern student by maintaining a traditional gatekeeper, or should we advocate for assessment models that reward resilience, intellectual curiosity, and sustained effort over the 180 minute flash of an exam?

The challenge for Upper Secondary education is to ensure our diploma is not just a finish line, but a comprehensive launchpad for a lifetime of complexity.

At H-FARM International School my colleagues Emiliano Cori Alessandra Chiovati Sara Casagrande david coppard, Alba Manso Francesco Giuseppe Pettinato Angélica Benvenuto are working on this topic, if you are interested please join the conversation